The concentration of the stock market has increased recently. Can this be considered a cause of the upcoming global financial crisis?
Let's figure it out!
What is meant by concentration: the growth of the US stock market share in the world, the technology sector, the dominance of large companies in most regions.
(sources of information: Datastream, Worldscope, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, FactSet).
We could see a similar situation during the crisis in 2008, when the growth rate of the US market significantly outpaced the growth rate in relation to other regions. The US market share then reached 50%. This is a high historical figure.
Goldman Sachs now believes that the long-term growth in the relative size of the US market is justified, as it reflects the dominance of the US economy in the world. The famous “Buffett Indicator” – the ratio of US stock market capitalization to GDP – is also growing steadily (already 170%), outpacing the rest of the world. Only Switzerland and Denmark (much smaller economies) have a higher “Buffett Indicator” coefficient.
❕ By the way, an interesting fact: In the case of Denmark, the market value of Novo Nordisk alone exceeds Denmark's annual GDP.
Why is the US market so highly rated and is this a problem?
Firstly, The US stock market simply outpaced other markets due to the higher profits of US companies.
Second, The US market is more influenced by fast-growing sectors than the rest of the world.
Let's consider the other TOP 3 reasons for the US advantage:
1️⃣ The level of reinvestment among US companies is significantly higher than in other markets. The ability and willingness to reinvest at high prices in growing companies contributes to the relative leadership of US markets. This is especially true in the technology sector.
2️⃣ The US benefits from the presence of comprehensive and unique support ecosystems, including collaboration with universities, governments, venture capital and private equity funds.
3️⃣ The liquidity of the US stock market is significantly higher than in other markets, which helps reduce the risk premium.
We see that all three of these factors are somewhat interconnected. The forward P/E ratio of companies from the US market remains the highest compared to companies from other countries.
What should we (investors) do with all this?
The main conclusion is as follows: The size of the US stock market relative to other markets doesn't matter much as long as it is supported by fundamentals. And so far, the relative growth of the US stock market has been supported by such indicators.